The Account Reach & Frequency Saturation Modeler is a free Claude Skill that models effective reach across a target account's buying committee using the standard diminishing-returns exposure curve from media-planning theory, calibrated from your own historical engagement data, flagging under-reached committees and oversaturated ones.
A reach-curve modeling engine, not a live ad-platform or CRM integration. You supply impression counts and, optionally, historical engagement data to calibrate the model; this computes real, exact reach probabilities and saturation classifications.
| File | Purpose |
|---|---|
modeler.js | calibrateAttentionProbability(), cumulativeReachProbability(), marginalReachGain(), modelAccountReach() — zero dependencies |
test.js | 21-test suite, including hand-verified reach-curve math and a round-trip calibration check |
SKILL.md | Full skill definition, loadable in Claude Code/Desktop |
The per-impression attention probability is calibrated from your own observed engagement data rather than an assumed constant, and round-trips exactly through the reach formula. And reach across a multi-person buying committee is combined with the mathematically correct “at least one person reached” formula, not a naive sum that can exceed 100 percent, under the standard independence assumption stated explicitly.
Yes. Free to download and run yourself. MV3 charges $175/hr only for implementation help wiring this into your real ad platform's actual delivery and engagement data.
No. It is a pure function over the impression and engagement data you supply. You still need to pull that data out of your ad platform and feed it in yourself.
You calibrate it from your own historical data: an observed engagement rate and the average number of impressions it took to get there. The function solves for the probability that reproduces your real observed rate.
Summing individual probabilities can exceed 100 percent and is not the correct way to combine them. This uses the mathematically correct formula for the probability that at least one committee member was reached.
No. All calculations run entirely in your own environment.
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